Ace in the Hole
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 38 (12 on the archive and 26 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 16
Defender wins (German): 21
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1002 | 961 | 56% | 2026-03-18 | Won |
| 893 | 1102 | 23% | 2025-09-20 | Lost |
| 1343 | 1203 | 69% | 2024-06-15 | Won |
| 756 | 986 | 21% | 2022-03-14 | Lost |
| 1157 | 1063 | 63% | 2022-02-17 | Won |
| 938 | 1056 | 34% | 2022-01-15 | Lost |
| 1182 | 1019 | 72% | 2021-03-05 | Won |
| 983 | 1114 | 32% | 2020-10-07 | Lost |
| 1002 | 893 | 65% | 2020-04-16 | Lost |
| 1054 | 992 | 59% | 2017-12-19 | Won |
| 1113 | 1118 | 49% | 2017-04-28 | Lost |
| 970 | 1113 | 31% | 2016-09-26 | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1032.8 vs 1051.7 has a 47.28% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).